MH370: The Search Continues

We understand, in no small measure, the frustration of the families and friends who have sustained these traumatic times in the reporting of the demise of flight MH370.

We do.

One wonders, however, why it is that there are riots outside the Malaysian Embassy in Beijing and not at the gates of Malaysian Embassies and High Commissions in other countries.

What is it that the Chinese relatives feel that they are not being told that, perhaps, other families have been told? Indeed, what news is there to tell them?

It has been mentioned before in this ‘Blog’ that the Malaysian authorities have done their best to cope in what has been—and continues to be, a unique and exasperating case. Similarities between this missing aircraft and other flights that have vanished have been... well... none.

What was, at first, thought to be quite a straightforward search, find and recover mission has developed into all manner of complexities.

What is it that people imagine the Malaysians could have done differently?

There have been incidents of mishandling of some situations, which is true and have been copiously reported worldwide. The SMS incident where relatives have been informed over their mobile ‘phones was spread instantly but, it occurs to this person, if the news was spread in this manner by the Malaysians—either as the ‘Search Authority’ or as MAS, or whether this was a forwarding of the news by Chinese authorities who immediately deflected the situation off on to the Malaysians when they saw the storm brewing on the media horizon.

This is not a defence of the Malaysians, it is merely an attempt to have a more sanguine look at the situation. To try and rid ourselves of the emotive content with which the media is bent on twisting this saga now that there is little in the way of concrete facts to give us.

To start with, we still have no evidence. The circumstantial evidence appears to point to the current search location in the Southern Indian Ocean. It is entirely possible that this assertion is correct. We shall see. Anything that stirs the smallest vestige of hope is better than a complete collapse and the admittance that nothing further can be gained by shutting up shop and sending the search aeroplanes and ships home.

But there is one more thing. Just one small, nagging doubt eating, like a maggot, in the back of the brain.

It is this.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was also marketed as China Southern Airlines Flight 748 (CZ748) through a codeshare.

Many of the passengers would have purchased their tickets through the China Southern Airlines desk possibly including, one would think, the two that had the false passports (this is, of course, a conjecture).

How silent China Southern Airlines has become. It is true that the aeroplane belonged to Malaysian Airlines System and that they have carried the brunt of the flack and abuse that the world has hurled at the Malaysians.

Unfairly.

China Southern Airlines received the benefit of the codeshare but has done nothing to assist MAS with the families. China Southern Airlines is in a far better position to deal with the families than is MAS.

What have they done? Nothing according to the media reports.

Perhaps the accusations and virulence towards individuals should stop now and energy thus spent directed at the search effort instead. Perhaps a combined and concentrated effort on behalf of all the relatives and Nations of those lost rather than a focus on one Nation would be more desirable and effective.

Pointing fingers and making up stories is still not helping as it helped not one jot nearly three weeks ago.

The batteries in the Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder are fading. Let us not allow our hopes to fade with them.

MH370 Pt. III

How far have we advanced in the search for the missing aeroplane MH370?

Not far, it seems.

Theories, as one might expect, abound but none of them have drawn us, realistically, any closer to finding the Boeing 777 or, more importantly, its passengers.

These are trying times for the relatives and friends of those on board. Although the focus seems to be on the two thirds of the pax who are Chinese it must be remembered that the others are equally important. There are, for example, three Australians on board whose lives are just as important to their relatives and friends as are the lives of those who live in China.

I was bemused to hear, on an American based news channel, that the US has already ‘poured fifty million dollars’ into the search effort. Really? I am considerably underwhelmed. There were, I believe, Americans on board whose families will rile at the suggestion that supplying insurgents with weaponry to the tune of far in excess of fifty million dollars (US Dollars, one presumes) is money better spent than in trying to discover what has happened to their kin.

This is not a political rant. It is a point of disgust at the media who, even now, are trying to lay blame and create sensational headlines where none exist.

We have been through the suggestions that the crew are to blame, that the engineering staff are to blame, that the cargo loaders are to blame where, in truth, nobody knows.

Nobody.

We have suffered the enduring complaints against the Malaysian Government who are, if we are to be realistic about this, blameless. They have acted in the best interests of everybody throughout.

There are few countries, if any, in the World that could have done better under these circumstances. Of course there are ‘National Interests’ in play just as there were ‘National’ and ‘Corporate’ interests in play when the Americans and the British were said to be slow in giving up information.

The truth is that these people were not slow. Nobody has been slow. Data needs time to be decoded and decrypted.

Last year there were close to thirty four million departures from airports worldwide. Finding one flight among those, even when you know the time and date, is like the proverbial needle in a haystack. That this aircraft was not fitted with the latest technology is excusable; every airline wants to cut costs, there is no bottomless pit in the middle of one of their hangars containing funds to upgrade equipment or, for that matter, personnel.

There is now a clue. A possible clue.

Débris has been found in the South Indian Ocean over fifteen hundred miles from Perth, Australia.

Whether it is part of the missing airliner we do not know but it is worth checking.

Note that: ‘...we do not know...”

At some point the search will grind to a halt. The reasons for the missing aircraft will be in a file labelled ‘Unsolved’.

No doubt accusations will reverberate around the Globe in the media and in political circles for a long time.

We can only hope that, before the cash and the will to go on runs out something will be found, something that will bring closure to the families and friends of all on board—including the crews.

Until then, we do not know. We are still guessing, we are still speculating.

MAS Flight MH370 Pt. II

  

During the past hour the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dato' Sri Najib Razak, has held a press conference.

Before I make my own comments about the information tendered let me say that what he said and, more importantly, the way that he said it in terms of expression and body language was impressive.

The statement, as a whole, merely ratified my sentiments in the first ‘Blog’ on this matter.

To remind you, this was that “we do not know”.

Anything beyond that point is speculation.

Over the last week there has been a massive guessing game played by the media and on the internet.

Suddenly everyone on the Globe is an aviation expert. Everyone has a theory, everyone is convinced that this is right or that the events were as follows...

In spite of the subject matter of my last ‘Blog’ I am still getting people asking me what happened. I have stated, time and again, to people who ask me personally what my thoughts are on the aircraft’s disappearance and each time I am forced to say, “I don’t know.”

Because I do not know.

In the event that some form of solid evidence appears that can be corroborated by the experts tasked with this duty nobody knows.

We have had a serious exposition from a young student who spoke ardently of cabin depressurisation; of cracks in the B777 fuselage that could have disabled the aircraft’s ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) system as well as the transponder that reports back to a ground interrogation system; many theories that have been considered, seriously, by an avid media.

All of them baseless in fact.

Note: ‘In fact’.

Now, as a result of an excellently proceeding investigation involving many International parties—all of whom have to be organised and shuffled in to some sort of teamwork, there is a probable result from one of the satellite systems that circle our World.

Because the satellite images have to be decoded and deciphered it has taken some while to sift through what is available.

The agencies involved have taken the brave step of saying what they have so far.

They tell us that there are two possible routes that the aircraft might have taken. Why are there two? Because, as mentioned above, it takes a while to sort through the data and, at this point in time, there are two possible situations that have come to light.

In terms of the search effort it is clear that having one source only would be ideal but, at least, having two is better than having no information at all.

Dato' Sri Najib Razak said that a hijack is only one possibility.

He is right.

The press will immediately jump on the ‘hijack’ as being “THE ANSWER’; they are, possibly, correct.

Possibly.

We do not know.

We wait for further evidence.

Flight MH370 MAS

In the past few days we have been beset with much grief – again.

Why?

Because another aircraft is missing with people on board.

There are many people aboard this aeroplane but, in real terms it matters little if there are five hundred or there is only one person. It is a matter of scale and the quantity of grief with which the World becomes awash.

Let us stop, just for a moment, and consider a couple of things here.

Firstly we should look at that third sentence. It says that an aircraft is missing.

Say that again slowly, ‘an aircraft is missing.’

Notice that, at the end of the sentence, there is a full stop. It is at precisely this point that the conversation should stop. Anything said after that is conjecture, it is speculation; there is no place in aviation for that. None.

When we get to that full stop we say, in our heads, that ‘we don’t know’ what happened. And that part is the truth. We do not know.

Shall we move on to a headline. It is dramatic, it is sensational. It shouts at us that ‘Terrorism Suspected in Missing Flight’.

This is guessing. It is speculation. There is absolutely no evidence to support this idea. That there are people flying on the aircraft with stolen passports is no indication of terrorism at all. There are a thousand reasons – well, several, anyway, why someone should be flying with a stolen passport and terrorism is not one of them.

We have ‘International Terrorism’ stuck in our heads by the media who are so anxious that there should be ghouls and ghosties behind every headline.

Consider this: there are only three questions ever asked by the news media. They are:

1.                  How bad is it?

2.                  How bad can it get?

3.                  What can be done about it.

They never, ever, ask about the good news.

These guessing games played by the news are no comfort to the friends and families of those who are missing. It is much better to say nothing, or pray for them if you will, than go on these wild crusades.

We hope that, ultimately, they will find the FDR (Flight Data Recorder – the ‘Black Box’) and the CVR (Cockpit Voice Recorder so that the truth may finally reveal itself to us.

Until then all else is conjecture. It is rumour, hearsay and, mostly, nonsense.

Let us not spread it around. Even if only for respect.

Thank you.

ADDENDUM

With reference to my ‘Blog’ of Monday, June 17, 2013.

The publisher is happy to announce that the problem with the postage rates has been resolved.

Copies of ‘A Simple Guide To Understanding Jet Engines’ are now available from ‘Amazon’ in the United States, the United Kingdom as well as Germany and France.

Thank you for your patience; we hope that this has not resulted in any problems or anguish for those studying for their EASA* or FAA* Pilot’s, Engineer’s or Mechanic’s licenses.

*NB: Also applicable to CAAS, CASA, Transport Canada, DCA(M), CAAC, etc.

Billions of US Dollars Wasted

For the uninitiated I should like to point out that working on, near or around aeroplanes is dangerous.

As I am fond of telling the participants on my courses the statistics do not support a long and healthy life.

Ground incidents are reported to be costing commercial airlines in the region of USD10 Billion a year.

Ten Billion.

We have no concept of what a ‘Billion’ is. We will, for the moment anyway, stick with the devalued American ‘Billion’ that is One Thousand Million. A British Billion is One Million Million.

It is impossible to imagine one billion. Our brains just will not encompass such a number. We think we know but we do not.

In fact, our brains have problems with any number greater than, say, seven!

When the Americans announced that there was trade deficit of three trillion dollars—yes, dear heart, three trillion dollars, everybody tutted and shook their heads.

If they had said that there was a trade deficit of one hundred and forty five dollars and ninety cents there would have been uproar. Why? Because we can imagine smaller numbers; we know what they will buy; we are accustomed to smaller numbers.

Three Trillion? No chance.

Humour me, do a small exercise. Get your mobile ‘phone or iPad—or what you will, out and tell me what you were doing one billion seconds ago.

Got it?

Surprised?

Now lets go back to the original thought.

Ground incidents are said to be costing Ten Billion US Dollars EVERY YEAR!

The figure rises.

Every single incident is avoidable. Every single incident is the result of someone:

Thinking that they know what they are doing,

Thinking someone else knows what they are doing,

Not thinking!

Everybody has had training. Every single person that goes near an aeroplane has had some instruction about safety.

Everybody.

Statistics may be scoffed at but they do not lie. We know, for example, that people get sucked into jet intakes. They die. Yes, we have all heard the stories—maybe even seen the video where a guy goes down an intake and survives. A rarity.

Every one else dies.

When you go down a jet intake the depression that was there already now gets worse because your body is creating an obstruction to the airflow. The engine is still ‘sucking’ for all it is worth.

Your lungs will empty and then they will try to rip out of your body resulting in your death by drowning—in your own blood. If you are lucky the engine will chop you into tiny pieces

Yes, it is sickening. It is extremely unpleasant but it is a fact. It is what happens if you stop thinking for a moment. This guy was highly experienced; he was 64. 

How many people get struck by propellers, tail rotors on helicopters, main rotors, ground support vehicles?

Many.

The cost in human terms is tragic. The friends and family now enter a period of great sadness known as ‘mourning’; Husband, Dad, Friend is gone.

We have said that these are incidents but we know that there is a difference between incidents and accidents.

It is the combination of these that costs so much.

We have rules, regulations, laws, checklists and training for a reason.

The reason is to keep you safe.

What are my ‘Aviation Maintenance Rules’?

Rule 1: Look after yourself

Rule 2: Look after your colleague(s)

Rule 3: Look after the equipment.

Observe that Rule 1 is ALWAYS ‘Look After Yourself’. You are in the best position to do that. Don’t just ‘look’ but ‘see’. Don’t just ‘hear’ but ‘listen’. Don’t assume—THINK.

Rule 2 is not to look after your friends because often you will work with people you don’t like. One guy said to me, “You don’t like me very much, do you?”

I told him that he was wrong. I didn’t like him at all.

But he is still a colleague! One day you may need him to look after you.

Alarmingly, you will work with people who do not like you. No, really. No matter how likeable you think you are, somebody out there dislikes you with a passion.

Rule 3 means that you keep the equipment serviceable and safe. Repairs or replacements are costly and that can mean that there is no pay rise this year—clearly contravening Rule 1!!

Training

For the last forty years, almost, I have been primarily involved in training.

Some time ago there was a search to find a book from which to teach jet engines; the search failed emphatically. Every book that we uncovered was too deep. Most of them were to a level that assumed that the reader was intent on designing a new engine as opposed to the Licensed Aircraft Maintenance Engineer (LAME) who just wants to diagnose and repair.

Example: One book that was very large and thick had a page covered in italics; it turned out that this was an equation. After scanning it for a moment or two I realised that the equation could be reasonably simplified into one line, the need for constants and fluid densities did not really apply for practical purposes where only an illustration of the effect was required.

We were not training physicists or design engineers.

Ultimately I was advised that if a simpler book was require then I should write it myself.

This is what then happened.

But.

I insisted that the book would be written in the way that I like to teach and thus it was filled with cartoons.

This has had an upside and a downside.

There were publishers who railed against the use of cartoons; they said that there was no room for humour in a textbook. The other downside was that some people have said that they enjoyed the cartoons but they had no idea what the text was all about because they never read it!

The upside is that many Licensed Engineers, as well as Pilots, Technicians and Mechanics, have thanked me for writing it because they now understood the subject better because it was written in a light-hearted manner and kept the subject down to a simple form in simple English.

Let me explain to you what we are striving for in writing a textbook and carrying out training of any sort. Clearly, it is unlikely that we should be successful in achieving all the requirements listed but we should endeavour, during all training, to be able to cover most of these things:

Under the revised ‘Bloom’s Taxonomy’ we are looking at the following -

The new terms are defined as:

Remembering: Retrieving, recognizing, and recalling relevant knowledge from long-term memory.

Understanding: Constructing meaning from oral, written, and graphic messages through interpreting, exemplifying, classifying, summarizing, inferring, comparing, and explaining.

Applying: Carrying out or using a procedure through executing, or implementing.

Analyzing: Breaking material into constituent parts, determining how the parts relate to one another and to an overall structure or purpose through differentiating, organizing, and attributing.

Evaluating: Making judgments based on criteria and standards through checking and critiquing.

Creating: Putting elements together to form a coherent or functional whole; reorganizing elements into a new pattern or structure through generating, planning, or producing.

(from Anderson & Krathwohl, 2001, pp. 67-68)

Note that I said this was the intention for ‘all training’. So it is.

But.

At the end of the training session the onus is upon the trainee to implement all that they have been taught.

Something that is extremely disappointing is to teach a group of people the correct way to carry out a procedure—perhaps in accordance with the directive from an Aviation Authority or from ‘The Company’, and then see those same people, the very next day, continuing to use the wrong method because that is the Company ‘norm’, it is what they are accustomed to doing even if it is wrong or, even, hazardous.

This is something that occurs Worldwide. Often the trainer is battling against peer pressure, budgetary constraints, personnel deficiencies—in terms of numbers or aptitude, and people with static mindsets in positions that affect the workplace.

Peer pressure: “Don’t bother with that—this is how we always do it here.”

Budgetary constraints: “The Company cannot afford safety equipment—just do what you can with what we have.”

Personnel deficiencies: “We are short handed at the moment, you’ll just have to work an extra shift.”

Inflexible management: “Ignore the trainer—he’s an academic. Besides, he hasn’t been here long so he doesn’t know how we do things here.”

We trainers can only do so much. We can lead the trainee to knowledge but we cannot enforce implementation.

As you see, we trainers can write books that are simplified in order to help, we can put facts before the trainees, we can highlight hazards and give examples of where these things went very wrong for people but, finally, it is up to the trainees to put into practice what we have told them.

http://www.jetenginebooks.com/